Soccer, Helldivers, Sony, and Hidden Incentives / by Owein Reese

People's actions are often driven by the incentives they face, rather than the stated objectives they're given. This principle, although seemingly straightforward, can lead to unexpected and counterintuitive behaviors. The organizers of the 1994 Caribbean soccer tournament experienced this phenomenon firsthand.

During that year, goals scored in overtime counted double for the purpose of tournament ranking. In the final seven minutes of a match between Barbados and Grenada, with the score at 2-1, Barbados deliberately scored an own goal. Needing a win of at least 2, tying the game to force overtime was the only chance they had at advancing.

Grenada, who stood to advance even if they lost by 1, then attempted to score goals against either team's net. Their strategy shifted to preventing overtime. This bizarre scenario forced the Barbados forwards to defend their opponents' goal alongside the Grenadian players.

Can you imagine watching any game where teams were actively trying not to win?! We see it all the time in the corporate landscape. In fact, just look at what’s happening with Sony and Helldivers 2. It is one of the most successful games of the year in terms of sales but it has now been delisted in over 177 counties on Steam, where it is sold. 

I don’t have time for games these days but I can’t wait to find out what drove this action.